French property prices: indexes and maps
In an economic and social context that was, to say the least, disrupted in the ﬁrst quarter of 2019, older property prices in France (excluding Mayotte) continue to increase: +0.7% by relation to the fourth quarter of 2018 (seasonally adjusted provisional data), which is the same development as the previous quarter.
Over a year, the prices are slowing down slightly: +3.0%, after 3.2%. As has been observed since the end of 2016, the upturn remains greater in apartments (+3.7% in a year) than in houses (+2.5%).
In the ﬁrst quarter of 2019, older property prices in Greater Paris slowed: +0.4% compared to the previous quarter, after 1.3%, while they increased in the French provinces by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, after 0.5%.
Over a year, the prices continue to increase at a steady pace in Greater Paris: +3.9% between the ﬁrst quarter of 2018 and the second quarter of 2019. In the French provinces, the upturn in prices is basically unchanged: +2.6% between the ﬁrst quarter of 2018 and the ﬁrst quarter of 2019, after +2.8% and +2.7%.
This upturn is close to the one observed in Greater Paris, excluding Paris itself. These upturns should be put into perspective with regard to inﬂation in particular (1.2% over a year in April 2019)2 which minimises the upturn and maximises the downturn, and the regional disparities: while the upturn in prices continues in the urban areas, even strained areas, it is not the same in a good number of rural areas or areas seeking a second economic wind.
As for the investor market, the impact of the Denormandie tax exemption law, the rent cap in Paris (which could also be applied in other agglomerations) should be medium-term measures to look out for.
N.B. : Indices are extracted from "INSEE's information rapides N° 2019-136"
Median price per sq.m. for older apartments in the 1st quarter of 2019
Median selling price of older houses in the 1st quarter of 2019
Loans (Banque de France data - April 2019)
In April 2019, the growth in individual loans accelerated (+6.3% after +6.1% in March) under the combined effect of the increase in home loans (+6.2% after +6.1% in March and +6.0% in February) and consumer loans (+6.1% after +5.8% in March). The average interest rate of new home loans (long-term and ﬁxed rate) decreased in April (1.49%, after 1.51% in March) reaching its lowest historic level in December 2018.
Reform of residence tax: cautionary statement
Since negotiations over the reform of residence tax are under way, the Association of French departments is proposing that the government reform the ﬁnancing of social assistance through the creation of a solidarity fund ﬁnanced by an increase of 0.2 points on inheritance tax.
In the light of the upturn in property prices, the increase in the marginal rate would be a boon for finances in French departments, the main beneﬁciaries of inheritance tax.
Indeed, inheritance tax to date includes a departmental portion of 4.5%, a commune portion of 1.2% and recovery costs for a total of 5.81%. This tax was already increased in 2014 by 0.7%, going from 3.8% to 4.5%. By applying this new 0.2 point helping hand requested by the departments, the total of inheritance tax would be 6.01%, the commune portion included.
Between the 1st quarter of 2011 and the 1st quarter of 2019, several annual price development phases stand out, with an overall better resistance in the apartments market (particularly bolstered by the Greater Paris market):
- 2011/2012: deceleration of the upturn around 2% (against 7% one year earlier). Apartments were more resistant, maintaining the upturn at around 4% (against less than 1% in houses);
- 2012/2015: subdued fall in price (around -2% each year);
- 2015/2016: start of the price recovery, slightly ahead for houses (with -0.4% for apartments and +0.8% for houses);
- 2016/2019: recovery of upturn in houses between 2017 and 2019, around 3% each year. Yet again, the apartments market stands out, with increases close to 4% against 2% for houses.
Consult the french property market report in interactive version
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